Monday, October 7, 2013

Historical Perspective of Washington Dramas


Please keep in mind, that although I do have strong political views about the proper role of the federal government in our lives, my commentary about clients’ investments focus NOT on how politics “should” be, but rather the best strategies for dealing with current political realities.

The present political reality is that we have a government influenced by sharp political differences. And, the electorate has allowed one side to have “veto” power over the other.

One only needs to read the biographies of Alexander Hamilton and George Washington as well as other historical writings to learn that our present situation is not much different from that in 1790 and most of our history as a nation.

Our founding fathers “compromised” to create the system where a 55% majority (53% in the 2012 presidential election.) vote does not give the “winners” the right to force the “losers” to submit.  (Only once in our history did our leaders fail to compromise—when the minority decided to secede and the majority sent an invading army to subdue and conquer them.)  As evidenced by the US Constitution that requires 75% approval for an Constitutional Amendment to pass, generally unless one side controls 66-75% of the electorate—some form of “negotiation” is required for anything of any importance to get done. (Many believe that this protection of the minority from the will of the "mere" majority is what makes us a great country.)

Unfortunately, some negotiators choose confrontation rather than consultation as a strategy. One side makes a demand, and the other states “I will not negotiate”.  In Game Theory, this is called “Chicken” where the loser is the one who gives in first.  It is a proven fact that most mature and rational people hate to “deadlock” or “fail” in a negotiation. But, for some reason, our centralized federal government has always been full of people who believe that when playing Chicken, even if there is a “crash” because of a deadlock, they can still win…in the NEXT ELECTION. (Perhaps we should elect people who are great negotiators rather than great orators and campaigners.)

Both sides of the present argument believe that they can gain control of BOTH the House and Senate in the next election in 2014 if they can paint the other side as “Bad” or the “Most Worse”. Since control of BOTH the House and Senate is a big deal—especially with a lame duck President, expect a very serious fight.  I think the probability is that it will be as big as 2011. Our massive debt and deficits magnify what is at stake.

So let’s see how the threat of default and a “historic” downgrade of US Credit has affected investors:

In June 2011, the S&P500 was at 1345. It fell 18% to 1099 after the deadlock on raising the debt ceiling. It recovered back to 1345 by February of 2012.  Basically, a seven month long headache.  For those that did nothing from June 2011 to February 2012, nothing really changed. 

The negotiation and “settlement” in 2011, set up another confrontation in late 2012---the Fiscal Cliff and Sequestration. The S&P500 peaked at 1465 in September 2012 (falling 8% by December)  but quickly recovered to 1465 by January 2013. The S&P500 reached 1700 in September 2013.  In two years of almost never ending Washington drama, the S&P500 rose 26%.

Trying to profit by selling before the crises and buying at the bottom is not an investment strategy—it is a gambling strategy. Nobody knows exactly what will happen and when. Most of my clients are not gamblers—so other than being conservative and patiently waiting and looking for buying opportunities with surplus cash—my general advice is to simply watch the drama play out.

It is impossible to predict the exact outcome. But, history teaches that markets USUALLY recover remarkably quickly and those that continue to hold a diversified portfolio of good quality investments get wealthier over time.
 
This paper is for educational purposes and for the sake of discussion. It is not a sales presentation and not a recommendation or personal investment advice. Opinions provided are exclusively those of Wayne Strout and are not the opinions by any financial institution. All investing involves significant risk of loss and there is no proven method to eliminate that risk. No investment should be made without a complete due diligence process, fundamental analysis and a discussion with your personal financial advisor.

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